Central Bank predicts 2% inflation increase due to electricity and gas tariff hikes
The regulator in Uzbekistan is preparing for a 2 percentage point increase in inflation in April, largely due to the impact of last year’s energy tariff hikes. The planned rise in electricity and natural gas tariffs is expected to further contribute to this inflationary pressure, according to Samigjon Inogomov, the Director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department.
During a media dialogue on February 12, Inogomov announced the calculations that show the anticipated effect of the April tariff increases on electricity, natural gas, and methane. This is projected to result in a 2 percentage point increase in inflation, with expectations of a year-end inflation rate of 7-8%.
Inogomov also addressed the planned restriction on the sale of AI-80 gasoline starting in 2026, highlighting that similar initiatives had been postponed multiple times in the past. He emphasized the distinction made by the regulator between inflationary factors that are government-regulated and those considered uncertainties and risks.
Furthermore, the Central Bank’s recent monetary policy report raised concerns about the potential increase in production costs due to higher transportation expenses resulting from the rise in gas prices for CNG stations. Starting April 1, 2025, the natural gas tariff for all consumers, including thermal power plants, will increase to 1,800 UZS per cubic meter, while the gas price for CNG stations will jump by 38.8% to 2,500 UZS.
While inflation is expected to accelerate in April, it is projected to decline in May as the effects of last year’s tariff hikes on electricity and gas are no longer factored into the annual inflation calculation. The Central Bank remains vigilant in monitoring these developments to ensure stability in the economy amidst these inflationary pressures.
