Generational Population Changes Lead to Decline in Uzbekistan’s Birth Rate
The number of births in Uzbekistan has been on the decline in recent years, with economist Mirkomil Kholboev attributing this trend to a generational shift. According to Kholboev, this decrease in births is part of a natural demographic cycle rather than a reflection of deeper demographic issues.
From January to September 2024, approximately 694,000 births were registered in Uzbekistan, marking a 3.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. While there have been periodic fluctuations in birth rates over the years, experts believe that these variations are in line with long-term patterns rather than being caused by specific economic or social challenges.
Kholboev pointed out that many individuals of childbearing age in Uzbekistan were born during the early years of the country’s independence, a time when birth rates sharply declined due to economic hardships, dropping by nearly 30%. This smaller generation of potential parents is now impacting the current birth rates. The correlation between the birth rate of current and previous generations suggests a strong link, indicating that today’s lower birth numbers are influenced by those observed 27 years ago.
Marriage rates in Uzbekistan have also seen declines, with rates falling by 2.8% in the first nine months of 2024, 4.3% in 2023, and 2.8% in 2022. This decrease is partly due to the increasing average age of marriage and the impact of lower birth rates in the 1990s.
While the fertility rate has increased in recent years, rising from 2.4 children per woman in 2017 to 3.3 in 2022, the overall number of births is still affected by the smaller population size of individuals in their childbearing years. Therefore, Kholboev suggests that this decline should be viewed as a temporary demographic trend rather than a long-term issue.