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Turkey’s Population Projected to Drop Below 50 Million by 2100

Population decline is a growing concern in Turkey, with the latest statistics showing a decrease in the fertility rate and a slowing population growth. Hacettepe University’s Population Studies Institute Faculty Member, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Ali Eryurt, has shared his insights on the issue, highlighting the implications of these trends for the country’s future.

Eryurt pointed out that Turkey’s birth rate has dropped to 1.51 children, with major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir experiencing even lower rates. He projected that the country’s population will reach around 88 million by the 2040s before entering a horizontal decreasing trend, eventually falling below 70 million by the mid-2070s and below 50 million by 2100. The population under the age of 15 is expected to decline rapidly, reaching 10 million in 2050 and 4 million in 2100.

On the other hand, the working-age population (15-64) is projected to remain around 60 percent until the 2050s, decreasing to around 50 percent by 2100. This demographic shift will lead to a rapidly growing elderly population, with one in every four people expected to be over the age of 65 by the first half of the 2050s.

Eryurt emphasized the need for policies that support families and encourage higher birth rates. He suggested measures such as expanding access to childcare services, increasing maternity leave duration, and providing financial incentives for parents. Eryurt also highlighted the importance of creating flexible and part-time working models to help parents balance work and family responsibilities.

As Turkey faces the challenges of an aging population and declining birth rates, policymakers will need to implement effective strategies to support families and ensure sustainable population growth in the years to come.



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