Global Warming Targets at Risk: 1.5°C Limit Could Be Breached by 2029, Study Finds
New Study Predicts Irreversible Temperature Rise by 2029
A new study published in the journal “Nature Climate Change” has re-examined the data from the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is part of the United Nations (UN). The study takes into account the estimated carbon emissions of the past three years and the contribution of non-carbon factors to global warming, in addition to the data presented in the IPCC report up to 2020.
The researchers found that the use of fossil fuels significantly accelerates global warming, causing it to occur at a rate twice as fast as previously believed. They also determined that the threshold of keeping global warming at a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius, as set in the Paris Climate Agreement, may be irreversibly exceeded by 2029, much sooner than originally anticipated.
The study highlights that carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere create a greenhouse effect, trapping radiation and leading to increased temperatures. It warns that there may already have been enough greenhouse gas emissions to keep temperatures above seasonal norms for an extended period.
One significant finding of the research is that the carbon budget, which refers to the maximum amount of carbon that can be emitted to limit global warming, has been reduced more than expected. The study reveals that sooty particles known as “aerosols”, which are commonly produced by the use of fossil fuels and contribute to air pollution, have a greater cooling effect than previously believed by reflecting sunlight back into space.
However, the decrease in aerosol emissions due to various factors means that 100 billion tons need to be subtracted from the carbon budget aimed at stabilizing global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Taking into account other factors, the total carbon budget has now decreased to 250 billion tons.
According to the researchers, global carbon emissions must reach zero by 2034, instead of the previously targeted year of 2050, in order to prevent the exceeding of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.
This study serves as a wake-up call, indicating that urgent action is needed to mitigate the effects of global warming. The findings emphasize the importance of transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, as well as implementing effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
