Is ‘Earthquake Row’ Correct This Time? A Dangerous Quiet: Under Türkiye, Lives Lost
The Earthquake Oracle: Debunking Predictions and Understanding Faults in Turkey
Frank Hoogerbeets, often referred to as the "earthquake oracle," has garnered attention in the media with his alarming predictions about seismic activity, notably forecasting major quakes days before they occur. His claims, mostly based on celestial observations, have sparked skepticism within the scientific community.
On February 6, just three days prior to the devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey, Hoogerbeets inaccurately predicted a quake of magnitude 7.5 in the region. While he has occasionally made correct predictions, many experts emphasize that these do not stem from anything scientifically reliable; they are often mere coincidences.
In his latest controversy, Hoogerbeets stated, "There are no dead faults in Turkey,” suggesting that all geological faults are still active. This claim has raised eyebrows, especially since many faults across Turkey have remained inactive for thousands of years. Gazi University’s Assoc. Dr. Bülent Özmen points out that the Anatolian microplate, situated between the Arabian and Eurasian plates, continuously shifts, indicating that the notion of "dead faults" does not hold up in geological terms.
Understanding Faults: Alive, Dead, and Locked
Hoogerbeets’ assertions overlook the realities depicted in geological maps like the MTA’s, which reveal that Turkey is teeming with faults capable of generating seismic activity. Özmen asserts, “There is no ‘dead fault’ in Turkey; rather, there are inactive faults that could spring to life given the right conditions.” He elucidates that while some faults haven’t produced earthquakes in over two million years, they are still recognized as geological risks.
The phenomenon of "locked faults," which may remain silent for extended periods yet could release significant energy when they do finally move, has contributed to the complexity of seismic predictions. Özmen clarifies, "If a fault is producing earthquakes, it is absolutely alive," emphasizing that evaluating these faults requires extensive historical data rather than simply observational periods.
The Reality of Earthquake Potential in Istanbul
As for the predicted earthquake magnitude for Istanbul, Hoogerbeets’ speculations and the concerns voiced by experts align. Many geologists agree that the region is at risk of a substantial quake, potentially reaching magnitudes of 7.0 to 7.6 based on historical occurrences, such as the powerful 7.6 magnitude earthquake of 1509.
Assoc. Dr. Özmen highlights the significance of ongoing studies in the Sea of Marmara, which have identified numerous active faults. He states, “Understanding the dynamics of faults in this region is crucial for mitigating earthquake dangers.”
Conclusion
While the allure of predictions made by figures like Frank Hoogerbeets captures public imagination, it is essential to approach such claims with skepticism. Geological research provides a more grounded understanding of seismic dangers, emphasizing the need to focus on scientifically accurate data and comprehensive assessments rather than sensational predictions. As Turkey continues to grapple with its complex geology, awareness and preparedness remain the most prudent paths forward.
