Kazakhstan’s Economy Exhibits Resilience, Outperforming 2023 Growth Projections: IMF
Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth Forecast Revised Upward by IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth in 2023, projecting it to be 4.6%, which is a 0.3 percentage points increase from its previous estimate. The new projection was unveiled in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on October 10.
The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia in May had already projected positive economic growth for Kazakhstan, but the revised forecast indicates even more promising prospects for the country’s economy. The report also predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.2% for 2024.
In addition to the positive growth outlook, inflation is expected to decline in Kazakhstan. The IMF estimates a notable reduction in inflation in the coming years. While the projected inflation rate for 2023 stands at 15%, the current year-on-year inflation is reported at 11.8%. Looking ahead, the IMF forecasts a substantial reduction in inflation to 9% by 2024.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report highlights that the global economy is still on the path to recovery, despite challenges such as the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and rising living costs. Economic growth has decelerated but remains steady, displaying overall resilience.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF economic counselor and the director of the Research Department, noted that although growth remains slow and uneven, the global economy is gradually improving. The IMF’s latest projections suggest a slight slowdown in world economic growth, from 3% this year to 2.9% in the following year. Gourinchas emphasized that these growth rates are still below the historical average.
The IMF report also indicates a decrease in the rate of global price inflation. In 2022, inflation was at 9.2%, but it is predicted to decline to 5.9% in 2023 and further to 4.8% in 2024. The report suggests that most countries will not reach their inflation targets until 2025.
Furthermore, the WEO report emphasizes the importance of addressing geoeconomic fragmentation and the need for multilateral efforts to counter exclusive trading blocs and trade barriers. It highlights global challenges such as climate risks, food and energy security, and trade tensions that require international cooperation. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized the need for a robust global financial safety net with a well-resourced IMF to tackle these challenges effectively.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report was unveiled during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Marrakech, held from October 9 to 15. The meetings brought together various stakeholders, including central bankers, finance and development ministers, parliamentarians, private sector executives, representatives from civil society organizations, and academics to discuss pressing global issues.
Overall, the IMF’s revised GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan showcases the country’s economic potential and provides optimism for its future growth trajectory.
