Fear of Immigration: Hungary’s Political Maneuvers and the Ukraine Debate

In 2004, Hungary faced a contentious political landscape when the leftist-liberal Gyurcsány cabinet strongly opposed the idea of granting double citizenship to Hungarians living abroad. The government argued that such a move would lead to a massive influx of Hungarians returning to Hungary, causing the nation’s infrastructure and social services to buckle under pressure. Fast forward to today, and similar fears are being stirred up by the current Orbán cabinet, this time centering around Ukraine’s potential accession to the European Union.

The Specter of Romania: 23 Million Guest Workers

The discourse around immigration has a long history in Hungary, exemplified during Orbán’s first term as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002. At that time, a compromise was reached with Romanian Prime Minister Adrian Năstase to allow Romanian nationals to work in Hungary for temporary periods. The opposition, led by the Socialists, claimed this agreement could open the floodgates for up to 23 million Romanians to flood the job market, potentially displacing local workers.

In 2004, amidst a heated debate about double citizenship, the World Federation of Hungarians launched a referendum to allow Hungarians abroad to gain citizenship. While the referendum ultimately failed due to low turnout, it revealed underlying tensions, with advertising campaigns warning that Hungarian citizens would face job losses and increased taxes should the proposal succeed.

Orbán’s New Campaign Against Ukraine’s EU Membership

Currently, the Hungarian government is campaigning against Ukraine’s EU membership, arguing that it would have disastrous economic consequences for Hungary. Claims are being made that mass Ukrainian migration could overwhelm social services and labor markets. Furthermore, there are fears that Ukrainian pensioners could receive their benefits from Hungarian funds, leading to potential cuts in pensions for Hungarians.

Historically, Orbán had supported Ukraine’s EU ambitions, particularly following Russia’s invasion. However, he now argues that immediate accession is unfeasible, positioning it as a long-term goal rather than an immediate reality.

Interestingly, Orbán’s Fidesz party is attempting to frame opposition groups, like Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party, as advocates for rapid EU accession for Ukraine. However, Magyar has publicly denied such claims, highlighting a significant disconnect between political rhetoric and the reality of party agendas.

The Continued Narrative of Ukrainian Guest Workers

Despite Hungary’s need for foreign labor, the narrative surrounding Ukrainian guest workers persists. While tens of thousands of Ukrainians currently work in Hungary, there is a decreasing demand for foreign labor due to a struggling economy. Nevertheless, Orbán’s government appears to favor Ukrainian workers, citing cultural and religious commonalities as contrasting to migrants from Africa and the Middle East.

Since the onset of the Russian invasion, Hungarian officials have boasted about the welcome they extended to over 11 million Ukrainian refugees. However, the majority did not settle long-term in Hungary, choosing instead to continue to Western and Central Europe, where they have established connections. This raises questions about the true impact of Ukraine’s EU membership on Hungary’s labor market, challenging the narrative that an influx of Ukrainian workers would halt in Hungary.

In conclusion, Hungary’s immigration narrative reflects a broader political strategy aimed at stirring existential fears among the populace. Whether through recalling past dealings with Romania or focusing on the potential implications of Ukraine’s EU membership, the Orbán government seems to be steering public opinion away from embracing new immigrants, even as economic realities might suggest otherwise.

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