EBRD reduces economic growth outlook for Central Asia
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has released its latest report titled “Regional Economic Prospects,” which includes a revised economic growth forecast for Central Asia in 2024. The bank predicts a regional GDP increase of 5.1%, a slight dip from the earlier estimate of 5.4% made in the spring.
Despite this minor adjustment, EBRD experts continue to hold an optimistic view of the region’s growth prospects for 2025, forecasting a GDP growth rate of 5.9%. The projected economic recovery is attributed to factors such as increasing revenues from raw material exports, significant investments in infrastructure, and ongoing market reforms.
Wages, remittances, and international tourism are also driving the positive trajectory of the region’s economy. Uzbekistan, in particular, is seeing strength in its services and industrial production sectors. However, analysts caution that the ongoing energy supply deficit could impede further growth opportunities.
The EBRD has projected a GDP growth rate of 6% for Uzbekistan in both 2024 and 2025, a slight decrease from the previous estimate. Kazakhstan faces a growth forecast revision to 4%, partly due to recent flooding, with a potential rebound through infrastructure recovery spending and key sectors such as trade, transportation, services, and information technology. A growth rate of 5.5% is anticipated by 2025, driven by oil production expansion.
In Kyrgyzstan, robust economic growth is expected at 9% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, supported by tourism, infrastructure investments, and gold and silver exports. Tajikistan is projected to achieve growth through metal exports, infrastructure spending, and wage increases, with growth forecasts at 8% for 2024 and 7% for 2025.
Turkmenistan is anticipated to see an average economic growth rate of 6.3% in both 2024 and 2025, thanks to government investments and increased transportation activities. However, a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy may pose challenges for gas exports.
While the EBRD has adjusted its growth forecasts for Central Asia in the short term, the long-term outlook remains positive, reflecting the region’s resilience and potential for recovery.
