Election Prediction Expert Forecasts Closest Odds, What’s Next in Round Two?
Turkey’s presidential election has entered the second round, as no candidate was able to pass the 50 percent threshold in the first round of voting. The leader of the main opposition party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who had been leading in polls, received 44.9 percent of the votes, just behind incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who received 49.5 percent. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2 percent of the votes. The results are not yet finalized.
The predictions made by public opinion researcher Hakan Bayrakçı days before the election became the center of attention. Bayrakçı, citing SONAR Research data, predicted that Erdoğan would receive 48.8 percent of the votes, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.1 percent, and Ogan 3.5 percent. While most public opinion research companies were wrong in their predictions, Bayrakçı’s data proved to be more accurate.
Bayrakçı also made predictions for the possible second round, with Erdoğan receiving 52.1 percent of the votes and Kılıçdaroğlu receiving 47.9 percent. The winner of the second round will serve as Turkey’s president for the next five years.
