German Seismologist Predicts Up to 7.4 Magnitude
Potential Major Earthquake Threatens Istanbul: Experts Weigh In
Following a recent 6.2 magnitude earthquake near Istanbul, concerns over a potentially larger seismic event have intensified. Dr. Marco Bohnhoff, a renowned German seismologist, emphasized that the energy stored in the tectonic fault beneath the Marmara Sea has the capacity to unleash an earthquake as powerful as 7.4 magnitude. This alarming possibility indicates that such an event could be approximately 6.2 times stronger than the recent quake experienced on April 23.
Fault Dynamics Explained
Dr. Bohnhoff provided insights into the theories of fault drifting and locking. He noted that the western segment of the fault, near Tekirdağ, tends to drift while the eastern segment, closer to Istanbul, is more likely to remain locked. He stated, “Creep occurs slowly and without seismic activity. However, segments can become activated during major earthquakes, transferring energy across the fault line and into the surrounding areas.”
Accumulated Energy and Future Earthquakes
Further analysis from Necdet Burak Özyurt of Hürriyet suggested that the recent Silivri earthquake may have accelerated the timeline for a larger seismic event in Istanbul. Özyurt referenced Dr. Bohnhoff’s thesis, asserting that the accumulated seismic energy could release over 50 to 60 medium-sized earthquakes before a significant event occurs.
Consequences of a Major Earthquake
The implications of such a powerful earthquake are dire. Recent projections indicate that approximately 34,000 buildings in Istanbul would face damage if a 7.4 magnitude quake were to strike. City planners and emergency services must prepare for potential future scenarios and ensure that infrastructure is equipped to handle such disasters.
As Istanbul remains on high alert, experts continue to monitor seismic activity closely, urging residents and authorities alike to stay informed and prepare for the unpredictable nature of earthquakes in the region.
