Hungary’s Shrinking Trade Surplus Indicates Economic Troubles Ahead
Hungary continues to maintain a healthy trade surplus, with a second reading of data released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) revealing a EUR 1.039bn surplus for the month of October. This surplus comes as exports fell slightly by 0.5% year-on-year to EUR 12.927bn, while imports also saw a slight decline of 0.1% to EUR 11.888bn.
Trade with other European Union member states remains a significant factor for Hungary, accounting for 76% of the country’s exports and 71% of its monthly imports. For the period spanning January to October, Hungary recorded a trade surplus of EUR 10.368bn, with exports falling by 3.9% to EUR 121.341bn and imports decreasing by 6.3% to EUR 110.973bn.
During this time frame, Hungary’s terms of trade saw a modest improvement of 0.7% as the forint weakened by 2.7% against the euro and 2.1% against the dollar.
In a more detailed analysis of the trade data for October 2024 compared to the previous year, the balance of external trade in goods deteriorated by EUR 53 million, despite an increase in the HUF price level of export and import. The volume of various commodity groups saw fluctuations, with machinery and transport equipment seeing a decrease in export volume, while manufactured goods and fuels and electric energy experienced growth in both export and import volumes.
The volume of exports to EU-27 Member States decreased by 3.1%, while imports from these countries increased by 3.6%. On the other hand, extra-EU-27 trade saw an increase in export volume by 9.3% and a decrease in import volume by 3.6%, leading to an improvement in the external trade balance with these countries.
Overall, Hungary’s trade balance remains positive, with a strong reliance on trade with European Union partners and significant fluctuations in the volume of various commodity groups influencing the country’s trade performance.
