Inflation Forecasts Decrease in Uzbekistan due to Stable Currency and Fuel Prices
Currency exchange rate fluctuations and energy prices continue to be the key factors influencing inflation expectations in Uzbekistan, according to a recent survey conducted by the Central Bank.
In March, the average expected inflation rate for the next 12 months decreased slightly to 12.8%, indicating a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from February. However, the median indicator held steady at 10.6%.
Among different regions in Uzbekistan, Tashkent ranked the highest with an expected inflation rate of 16.9%. Other regions like the capital region and Samarkand estimated inflation at 14.3% and 13.6% respectively. On the other hand, Jizzakh, Karakalpakstan, and Navoi reported the lowest inflation estimates at 9.9%, 10%, and 10.8% respectively.
Profession-wise, workers in the tourism industry (10%), agriculture (10.4%), and commerce (10.6%) provided the most optimistic forecasts. Meanwhile, IT specialists (16.8%), constructors (14%), and banking workers (13.4%) had the highest estimates for future inflation.
Currency exchange rate fluctuations remained the primary influencing factor for inflation expectations at 61%, followed by fuel prices (50%) and utility tariffs (42%). The percentage of speculative price surges increased to 35%, while it decreased for transport expenses to 29%.
For entrepreneurs, the average inflation rate dropped by half a percent to 12.2%, with the median forecast remaining at 10.4%. Among different sectors, the tourism industry had the lowest inflation estimates for the year at 10.8%, while the culture and entertainment sector reported the highest at 15%.
In terms of regional business forecasts, capital entrepreneurs had the highest inflation expectations at 14.4%, followed by Kashkadarya (13.3%) and Khorezm (13.2%). On the other hand, Karakalpakstan, Namangan, and Bukhara reported the lowest inflation expectations at 10.3%, 11.1%, and 11.3% respectively.
Overall, the main factors affecting business forecasts were the dynamics of currency exchange rates (61%), energy prices (44%), utility rates (38%), transportation costs (33%), and raw material expenses (28%). As the country continues to navigate these factors, stakeholders will be closely monitoring inflation trends in the coming months.
