Key Economic Risks Identified by Central Bank of Uzbekistan for 2025
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has released a report outlining the main risks that could potentially impact the country’s inflation and economic growth in 2025. This report, detailing the monetary policy for the fourth quarter of 2024, highlights several key factors that could contribute to a rise in inflation over the next year.
One of the primary factors mentioned in the report is the influence of seasonal factors, monetary conditions, macroeconomic stability, and a decline in inflation expectations on inflation levels in the first half of 2025. The Central Bank also pointed out the potential impact of protectionist policies and trade restrictions on global supply chains, which could lead to increased global inflation and put pressure on domestic prices in Uzbekistan.
Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical crises were identified as a risk factor that could drive up prices for raw materials and food products, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures in the country. Internally, high investment activity and significant growth in real household incomes were highlighted as potential drivers of consumer demand, which could further heighten inflation risks.
The report predicts a temporary increase in overall inflation in April 2025, with projections indicating that inflation could reach approximately 7-8% by the end of the year. As such, the Central Bank has called for vigilance and careful monitoring of these risks to ensure the stability of Uzbekistan’s economy in the coming year.
