Rising Inflation Expectations in Uzbekistan Amid Currency Fluctuations
Inflation Expectations Rise in Uzbekistan
In Uzbekistan, inflation expectations have been on the rise, with citizens anticipating a price increase of 13.3% over the next 12 months, according to a recent report from the Central Bank. This figure represents a slight increase from the previous forecast in August, while the median inflation rate remains steady at 11.1%.
Tashkent is leading the way in terms of inflation expectations, with a forecast of 15.2%, followed closely by Surkhandarya at 14.4% and Samarkand at 14.1%. On the other hand, regions like Karakalpakstan, Kashkadarya, and Fergana are projecting lower inflation rates, ranging from 12.2% to 12.5%.
When it comes to different professional sectors, trade is expected to see the highest inflation rate at 14%, followed by transportation and IT at 13.9%. Interestingly, agricultural workers are the most optimistic, predicting an increase of 11.3%, while those in the tourism industry anticipate a rise of 11.9%. Government officials foresee inflation at 12.5%.
Income levels also play a role in shaping inflation expectations, with individuals earning higher incomes of 15 million UZS or more per month predicting the highest inflation rate at 15.8%. Those in the 10-15 million UZS bracket expect 14.4%, while those earning 2-3 million UZS forecast 13.8%.
The primary factors influencing inflation projections are currency fluctuations, identified by half of the respondents, followed by energy resource prices at 47% and utility tariffs at 45%. Other factors contributing to inflation concerns include salary and benefit increases (39%), speculative price hikes (29%), rising transport costs (28%), and food expenses (25%).
Among entrepreneurs, the average inflation forecast has increased slightly to 12.6%, with the highest expectations coming from enterprises in the capital region at 14.4%. On the other hand, regions like Karakalpakstan, Fergana, and Khorezm have the lowest inflation expectations.
In terms of sectors, healthcare, construction, and culture are expecting the highest inflation rates, while the hospitality industry, tourism, and transportation have the lowest projections.
Overall, currency fluctuations, utility tariffs, and energy prices continue to be the main factors shaping inflation forecasts in Uzbekistan. As citizens and professionals prepare for potential price increases, it will be important to monitor these factors closely in the coming months.
