Soaring Inflation Expectations in Uzbekistan Prompt Preparations for Price Hikes
In Uzbekistan, both the population and businesses are increasingly focused on wage and pension increases as key factors in their financial outlook.
Recent data from the Central Bank shows that inflation expectations among citizens have spiked in August, following a period of record lows. On average, people in Uzbekistan are now anticipating a 13.1% price increase over the next 12 months, up by 1.1% from the previous month. The highest expectations are seen in the Tashkent region, with residents forecasting a 14.6% rise in prices.
When broken down by industry, the IT sector has the highest inflation expectations at 15.2%, with manufacturing and construction following closely behind. On the other hand, agricultural workers and those in household services have the lowest forecasts.
Income levels also play a significant role in inflation expectations, with higher earners forecasting a more pronounced increase in prices. The leading factors influencing these forecasts include utility tariffs, fuel prices, and currency fluctuations, although the percentage of respondents citing wages and pensions as a factor has doubled since July.
For businesses, the average inflation forecast has increased to 12.5%, with the highest expectations seen in regions like Jizzakh, Andijan, and the Tashkent region. Education, IT, and culture industries have the highest inflation expectations, while craftsmen and construction workers have the lowest.
Overall, both the general population and businesses in Uzbekistan are closely monitoring inflation expectations, with a particular focus on factors like utility tariffs, energy prices, and exchange rates. Wage growth and transportation costs are also key considerations in determining future financial outlooks.
