Uzbekistan’s Inflation Fears Spike to Two-Year High
Amidst Concerns Over Rising Utility Tariffs and Energy Costs, Inflation Expectations Surge
Citizens in Uzbekistan are raising alarm bells over the increasing utility tariffs and energy costs, with these concerns being highlighted as key issues affecting the general population. According to the Central Bank, inflation expectations have seen a significant surge in February, impacting both the public and business community.
Reports indicate that the average anticipated price increase over the next 12 months stands at 15.3%, the highest level recorded since February 2023. The median forecast has also risen to 13.2%, reaching a threshold not seen since that time.
Residents of Tashkent and the Tashkent region anticipate the steepest inflation rates at 19% and 18% respectively, with the Fergana region following closely at 17.5%. However, more optimistic outlooks have been reported in Syrdarya, Navoi, and Jizzakh regions.
Industry-wise, workers in manufacturing, transportation, and education sectors have projected the highest inflation forecasts, while the food service, tourism, and agriculture sectors have shown lower expectations.
In terms of income level, individuals earning over 15 million UZS monthly foresee inflation exceeding 20%, while those earning 10-15 million and 7-10 million UZS project 17.2% and 16.6% respectively. Those at lower income levels have comparatively lower inflation expectations.
Utility tariffs have emerged as the primary driver of inflation expectations, with fuel price increases and currency fluctuations also playing significant roles. The influence of monopolies and speculation has also seen a rise in respondents’ mentions.
On the business front, inflation expectations have rebounded sharply after a dip in January. The average forecast among entrepreneurs stands at 13.8%, with a median of 11.2%.
Capital entrepreneurs have projected the highest price increases, followed by those in Fergana and Tashkent regions. Construction, manufacturing, and craftsmanship sectors lead with the highest inflation expectations, whereas tourism and IT sectors show notably lower forecasts.
Businesses have also pointed to utility costs, energy expenses, currency dynamics, and rising transportation costs as the main factors shaping their outlook. Tax burdens and raw material costs were mentioned less frequently as contributing factors.
