Warning of Huxit: Hungarian Economist Highlights Risks Under PM Orbán
Speculation Surrounds Possible Huxit Amid Strained EU Relations
As tensions escalate between the Orbán administration and the European Commission, discussions about a potential "Huxit"—Hungary’s exit from the European Union—are intensifying. Current efforts include a billboard campaign criticizing prominent EU figures such as Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber for supporting the expedited accession of Ukraine to the EU. Meanwhile, Hungary remains unable to access billions in Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and development funds due to ongoing concerns regarding the rule of law, sparking further debate over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s intentions regarding EU membership.
Insights from Hungarian Economist Zoltán Pogátsa
In a recent interview, Orbán suggested that leaving the EU is not currently advantageous for Hungary, but indicated that he would reconsider should conditions change. The newspaper People’s sought insight from Zoltán Pogátsa, a prominent Hungarian economist known on social media as "pogi," regarding the likelihood of Huxit.
Pogátsa outlined several economic and political reasons why he believes Orbán is unlikely to pursue an exit from the EU. Firstly, he posits that a national referendum on the issue is improbable. Instead, the Orbán government would likely conduct a “national consultation” to gauge the opinions of supporters, but would make any unilateral decisions behind closed doors.
A departure from the EU could diminish Orbán’s international stature, reducing him to a lesser figure in global politics, akin to the Prime Minister of North Macedonia. His influence largely stems from his position within the EU, which is not easily replaceable.
Economic Implications of Leaving the EU
Addressing economic implications, Pogátsa emphasized that Hungary’s economic model heavily relies on its EU membership. Major corporations from China, South Korea, and Germany invest in Hungary specifically to circumvent additional EU tariffs and restrictions. Should Hungary depart from the EU, it is likely these businesses would retract their operations.
While Orbán has fostered relationships with figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump, Pogátsa argues that the U.S. cannot provide substantial economic support to Hungary. Without the manufacturing capabilities tied to EU partnerships, Hungary lacks a competitive economic base. Consequently, the notion of becoming a U.S. economic satellite is seen as unrealistic, akin to the status of Puerto Rico.
As the discourse surrounding Huxit continues, the landscape of Hungary’s relationship with the EU—and its potential consequences—remains a critical area of focus for analysts and policymakers alike.
