Central Bank Measures Control Inflation, Utility Tariffs Remain a Key Concern
Inflation Expectations Drop After Central Bank Raises Key Interest Rate
The latest report from the Central Bank reveals that inflation expectations took a significant dip in March following the decision to increase the key interest rate. This information is based on a survey conducted between March 27 and April 5.
The average projected inflation rate for the next 12 months was reported at 14.2%, marking the lowest figure since December 2024 and nearly one percentage point lower than the previous month. The median forecast stood at 11.5%.
Among the regions, Tashkent registered the highest inflation expectations at 17.1%, although this represented a 1.9% decrease from the previous month. It was followed by Fergana (16.1%) and Namangan (15.5%), while the lowest figures were observed in Kashkadarya (12%), Navoi (12.3%), and Jizzakh (12.9%).
Profession-wise, educators and researchers reported the highest expectations at 15.8%, followed by household services (15.2%) and banking and finance (14.4%). The most optimistic sectors included tourism (12.3%), agriculture (12.8%), and IT (13%).
Citizens earning 15 million UZS or more per month anticipated the highest price increases, averaging at 18.5%. Those with incomes between 10 and 15 million UZS predicted a 17% rise, while those earning around 7 million UZS expected inflation just below 16%. On the other hand, people earning 2 million UZS or less projected a 12.6% increase.
The main factors influencing expectations were highlighted as the increase in utility tariffs (59%), energy prices (48%), and currency exchange rate fluctuations (39%). Concerns over speculative price hikes and monopolies decreased to 26%.
Businesses also revised their inflation forecasts, with the average projected increase for the next year dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 13%. The median forecast returned to the January level of 10.9%.
Regionally, the highest expectations came from the capital (15.7%), Samarkand (14.6%), and Surkhandarya (14.1%), while the lowest were recorded in Kashkadarya (10.6%), Khorezm (11.6%), and Navoi (11.9%).
By sector, educational institutions reported the highest inflation expectations at 15.5%, followed by healthcare (14.3%) and transportation (14.2%). Agriculture and industry both had projections at 11.9%, along with the tourism sector at 12.3%.
Utility tariffs remained the leading factor influencing business forecasts (52%), followed by rising energy prices (45%), currency volatility (43%), and increased transportation costs (31%).
