Central Bank Reports Sharp Drop in Business Inflation Expectations for January
Inflation Expectations Vary Among Entrepreneurs and Citizens in Uzbekistan
Inflation expectations among entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan have seen a notable decrease, while those among citizens have remained relatively stable, according to data from the Central Bank. The main drivers of these forecasts in January were the increase in housing and utilities tariffs, as well as energy prices.
The average forecast for price increases over the next 12 months stands at 14.4%, the highest level in two years, with a median forecast of 11.6%. The Tashkent region now leads the way with a forecast of 15.7%, followed closely by Bukhara and Andijan. The lowest forecasts are in Jizzakh and Navoi regions.
Among different professional sectors, trade, the public sector, and catering have the highest inflation expectations, while agricultural workers, IT specialists, students, and construction workers are more optimistic. Citizens with higher incomes tend to expect more significant price growth, with those earning over 15 million UZS per month forecasting an increase of 18.2%.
The primary factors driving price growth are housing and utilities tariffs, energy prices, currency fluctuations, and rising transportation costs. Speculative price hikes were mentioned by only a quarter of respondents, a decrease from the previous month.
Entrepreneurs have seen a notable decrease in their inflation expectations, with the average expectation at 12.9%, down one percentage point from December. Tashkent business leaders have the highest average forecast, followed by Samarkand and Syrdarya regions.
Different sectors like education, tourism, and entertainment industries have higher expected price increases, while IT and manufacturing sectors have lower figures. The rise in housing and utilities tariffs, currency fluctuations, and energy tariffs continue to be key factors influencing these forecasts.
