Is the EUR/HUF Exchange Rate Reaching 500 in Hungary? Expert Analysis Available
The Hungarian forint has been facing challenges with its exchange rate, particularly after a turbulent 2024 that saw its value drop by over 10% against the euro. Global economic shifts and domestic uncertainties have contributed to this situation, with analysts warning of further difficulties ahead while also expressing hope for potential surprises that could alter the forint’s course in 2025.
Throughout 2024, the forint experienced significant depreciation against major currencies, starting the year at 382 EUR/HUF and ending it at over 412 EUR/HUF by December. This trend continued into early 2025, with the euro exchange rate rising even further, reaching a two-year low against the dollar. While economic analysts remain cautiously optimistic, they suggest staying vigilant about global political and currency trends as further fluctuations in the exchange rate are possible.
The challenges faced by the Hungarian forint can be attributed to both global influences and domestic issues. Factors such as the strength of the US economy, trade policies, EU funding disputes, and high debt burdens have all contributed to the forint’s underperformance, especially when compared to currencies like the Polish zloty. Despite forecasts indicating potential continued weakening, analysts believe that some positive surprises could still come into play if economic or political conditions improve unexpectedly.
Looking ahead, Zoltán Árokszállási, Director of MBH’s Centre for Analysis, predicts that the forint is unlikely to strengthen significantly in 2025. With external factors like US tariffs impacting Hungarian exports and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies supporting a strong dollar, the forint faces ongoing pressure. Annual averages of around 405–415 forints per euro are expected, with a return below 400 considered unlikely. Inflation risks tied to further weakening may prompt Hungary’s central bank to remain cautious, limiting the potential for additional interest rate cuts to stabilize the exchange rate.
Overall, the Hungarian forint’s exchange rate remains a key focus for 2025, with the potential for further challenges ahead but also the possibility of unforeseen positive developments shaping its trajectory in the months to come.
