Kazakhstan’s Economic Forecast for 2025: Assessing Risks and Opportunities
Kazakhstan Faces Economic Challenges and Opportunities in 2025
As Kazakhstan enters a crucial year, the country is confronted with a mix of economic challenges and opportunities that will shape its future trajectory. While risks such as resource depletion, decaying infrastructure, and inflation threaten to impede growth, sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and sustainable energy offer pathways for progress.
Erlan Karimov, writing for Economy.kz, highlighted the importance of Kazakhstan’s ability to address these risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities to ensure economic stability and growth in the years ahead.
On the economic front, Kazakhstan faces several impending risks. The potential decline in non-ferrous metals and energy resources poses a significant challenge to the export-driven economy. Aging infrastructure, with over 65% of electrical networks outdated and most thermal power plants exceeding 60 years in age, further compounds these challenges. Financial instability, indicated by a state budget deficit of $7.2 billion in 2024, raises concerns about the country’s reliance on the National Fund and its ability to grow it to $100 billion.
Climate change vulnerability adds another layer of complexity to Kazakhstan’s economic outlook, with the country warming faster than the global average. Inflation levels are also a concern, with predictions exceeding the target set by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Rising utility costs and fuel prices have further strained the finances of Kazakh citizens, potentially leading to accelerated inflation in 2025.
However, amidst these challenges, Kazakhstan also has promising opportunities for economic growth in 2025. The manufacturing sector, particularly in processing technogenic mineral formations, presents significant potential, especially for road construction in regions with abundant tailings dumps. Sustainable agriculture practices aligned with a circular economy offer another avenue for growth, with climate change expected to increase global food demand.
Kazakhstan’s strategic location positions it as a key player in global trade, with projects like a direct narrow-gauge railway from China to the Kuryk port offering economic potential. In the energy sector, small modular nuclear power plants and waste incinerators could address infrastructure challenges and energy shortages effectively. The construction sector, fueled by rising urbanization rates, also presents opportunities for growth, especially in regions with abundant building material resources.
Overall, Kazakhstan’s ability to navigate these economic challenges while capitalizing on its promising opportunities will be crucial in determining its economic stability and growth in 2025 and beyond.
