Russia Unable to Make Significant Offensive Move in Ukraine in 2021: USA
US Intelligence Director, Avril Haines, recently spoke to the US Senate Armed Services Committee about global threats facing the country. Among these threats, Haines discussed the situation in Ukraine related to Russia’s shortage of ammunition and manpower. According to Haines, Russian forces are currently facing significant ammunition and personnel constraints, yet continue to lay mines and establish new defensive positions on occupied Ukrainian territory. Haines expects that the Russian forces will continue to suffer in the region, despite the possibility of counter-attacks by the Ukrainian army. She also noted that it is unlikely that the Russians will launch a significant offensive operation in Ukraine this year.
In terms of advancing peace talks, Haines evaluated that it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make any concessions. She believes that Russia will instead focus on consolidating control of the lands it has captured in eastern and southern Ukraine. Haines said, “We continue to assess that Putin most likely calculated that time was working in his favour, and prolonging the war may be the best remaining way Russia has to secure its strategic interests in Ukraine.”
On a different note, Haines added that with weakened conventional military strength, Moscow will become increasingly dependent on nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities for deterrence. However, she believes that it is highly unlikely that Moscow will use nuclear weapons in the current conflict.
This latest update demonstrates that the conflict in Ukraine remains a complex and ongoing issue. The US will continue to monitor the situation and work with international partners towards a peaceful resolution.
