Uzbekistan’s World Cup 2026 Chances Soar to 82.8% Following Draw Against Iran
After the recent matches in the third round of the Asian qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Uzbekistan’s national football team has seen a significant boost in its chances of directly qualifying for the tournament. We Global Football, a football analysis portal, updated the probabilities of Asian teams advancing to the World Cup, with Uzbekistan making impressive strides.
Following a 0-0 draw against Iran in the third round, Uzbekistan’s probability of direct qualification from Group A increased from 75.9% to 82.8%, indicating a 7% rise. This performance has placed Uzbekistan as the fourth-strongest contender among Asian teams vying for direct qualification.
Uzbekistan had previously improved its chances after a victory over Kyrgyzstan in the second round, which raised its likelihood of qualification from 70.3% to 75.9%. The team’s chances of advancing through the playoffs were calculated at 23.8%, with the probability of missing out on the World Cup entirely decreasing from 1% to 0.4%.
Iran continues to lead the pack in Group A, with a direct qualification probability of 98%, a slight increase from 97% after the previous round.
On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates’ chances have significantly declined to 15.5% after their second-round defeat and further dropped after a draw with North Korea. Similarly, Qatar’s probability of qualification decreased from 16% to 11.2% after the second round but slightly improved to 11.4% following a win over Kyrgyzstan.
Meanwhile, Japan, Iran, and South Korea remain the favorites to qualify, with Japan at the forefront with a 99.99% chance, followed by Iran (98%) and South Korea (97.5%).
Here are the current World Cup 2026 qualification chances for Asian teams:
1. Japan – 99.99%
2. Iran – 98.0%
3. South Korea – 97.5%
4. Uzbekistan – 82.8%
5. Iraq – 61.5%
6. Australia – 57.8%
7. Saudi Arabia – 31.2%
8. Jordan – 29.0%
9. Oman – 11.6%
10. Qatar – 11.4%
It is important to note that Asia has been allocated 8.5 slots for the 2026 World Cup. The top two teams from each group will earn direct qualification, while the teams finishing third and fourth will compete in playoffs for the remaining 2.5 spots. Currently, Uzbekistan shares the top position in Group A with Iran, both holding seven points.
