Uzbekistan Braces for Impact of Trump’s Global Tariff Policy
The recent introduction of a 10% tariff by the United States may not have a significant direct impact on most of Uzbekistan’s exports to the country, according to economist Mirkomil Kholboyev. The majority of Uzbekistan’s exports to the U.S. were in the form of services, which are not subject to tariffs. However, the secondary effects of this new trade policy could still be felt.
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced the implementation of “reciprocal tariffs” for all countries, with Uzbekistan facing a 10% tariff. Economist Mirkomil Kholboyev has examined how these tariffs may affect Uzbekistan’s economy.
“In 2024, Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with the United States reached $882 million, showing a 15.2% increase compared to 2023. Of this, exports to the U.S. amounted to $314.7 million, while imports totaled $564.3 million. Exports to the U.S. make up only 1.2% of Uzbekistan’s total exports,” Kholboyev stated.
Most of these exports are services, with goods exports totaling just $44.4 million in 2024. Therefore, 86% of Uzbekistan’s exports to the U.S. are services, exempt from tariffs. Only 14% of exports will be affected by the newly imposed tariffs.
The main goods exported to the U.S. include unspecified items, precious metals, and aluminum. Despite the minimal direct impact of the tariffs on Uzbekistan, the indirect effects could still be significant. The global economic growth slowdown resulting from the U.S. tariff policy could reduce demand for goods, affecting Uzbekistan’s key trading partners like China, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
However, there may be a silver lining in the situation. The price of gold, Uzbekistan’s primary export, is expected to reach new highs during times of uncertainty, potentially offsetting the decline in other exports. Additionally, the tariffs may lead to a decrease in global commodity prices, making imports cheaper for Uzbekistan and creating favorable conditions for monetary policy.
While the direct impact of the new tariffs on Uzbekistan may be minimal, the broader economic implications could still be significant. It is essential for Uzbekistan to monitor the situation closely and adapt its strategies to mitigate any potential negative effects of the new trade policy.
